MLB 2011 Regular Season Over/Unders and Predictions

American League East

1) Boston Red Sox's - UNDER 94.5
The Red Sox's spent this winter doing what the Yankees did in 2009, spending half a billion dollars to secure prime talent and make a serious run at a World Series title.  Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford are perfect additions to the already patient and potent lineup.  With depth at every position, the only questions are in the rotation and bullpen.  Josh Beckett, John Lackey, and Dice K have a lot to prove health and velocity wise.  Johnathan Papelbon and Daniel Bard are anything but sure bets to lock down games.

2) New York Yankees - UNDER 90.5
Eerily reminiscent of what they did in 2008 when they went with youth in the back end of the rotation, only this time going with veteran pitchers, the Yankees are prime for a down year.  After foolishly putting all their eggs into the Cliff Lee basket in the off season and not getting him, the Yankees have brought in veterans like Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, and even Eric Chavez, to help round out an already old team.  The Yankees will sneak into the playoffs thanks to their offense, but how far they go will be determined by where they are and what they do at the trading deadline.

3) Tampa Bay Rays - UNDER 84.5
After a wild spring training (Evan Longoria had his car stolen, then the following week an AK47) the Rays are in trouble.  They traded arguably their best big game pitcher in Matt Garza to the Cubs, and are banking on Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez being able to lift the offense, both of whom are way past their primes.  Lets not forget the biggest indictment against this team, they think Kyle Farnsworth can close games.

4) Toronto Blue Jays - OVER 77.5
Amazingly, the Blue Jays were competitive last season, due in large part to the absurd amount of home runs they hit.  They managed to unload the worst contract in baseball, Vernon Wells, to the Angels, which is the equivalent of having a winning season.  This team will have a hard time duplicating the offensive success they had last season, and will struggle to compete in what is hands down the best division in baseball.

5) Baltimore Orioles - OVER 70.5 - 

Buck Showalter's arrival in Baltimore was much needed, but it wont catch everyone off guard this season.  The Orioles wont be a push over in the East, but along with winning games, they have to work hard to reclaim their ballpark and fan base.  That is a tall order for a young team that is short on arms.

American League Central

1) Detroit Tigers - OVER 83.5 
Their offense is loaded, but it will be Justin Verlander who will carry this team.  The work horse pitcher is in line for a Cy Young caliber year, and will help Detroit reach the playoffs.

2) Minnesota Twins - UNDER 86.5 
Picking against the Twins is a foolish thing to do since they always have remarkable second half runs and end up in the playoffs, but this will be a down year for the club.  Justin Morneau's health concerns make it hard to see this being a good offense, and their ace Francisco Liriano is prime trade bait for a contending team.  Twins take a year off and regroup for a run in 2012.

3) Chicago White Sox's - UNDER 85.5 
The bottom line with the White Sox's is if Jake Peavy is healthy they will contend, but that is a BIG if.  Without Peavy to backup Buehrle, this is a .500 team at best.

4) Kansas City Royals - UNDER 68.5 
The A.L. version of the Pittsburgh Pirates, this franchise is an absolute joke.  The only player worth watching is their closer Joakim Soria, who will most likely be traded sometime in the near future.

5) Cleveland Indians - UNDER 69.5
The only good thing about the Indians is that most of America fondly remembers them from the Major League film franchise.  Other than that, and much like every other professional team in Cleveland, this team is a disaster.

American League West

1) Texas Rangers - OVER 87.5 

The Rangers will miss Cliff Lee, but the experience the young pitchers on the staff got last year is invaluable.  They know they can slay a Goliath team like the Yankees, and that they have enough talent offensively to beat opponents during bad pitching stretches.  The offense, led by Josh Hamilton, will carry this team to the playoffs.

2) Oakland Athletics - OVER 81.5 

A lot of analysts have hopped on the A's express.  With their young pitching, many have them penciled in for a surprise win of the West.  I can't see it.  A lineup thats biggest threat is Hideki Matsui is not going to the playoffs.

3) Los Angeles Angels - UNDER 84.5 

Back to back bad seasons for a team managed by Mike Scioscia?  Hard to believe.  This team is not talented.  The rotation is a mess with the implosion of Scott Kazmir.  The Angels used to own the West and overachieve because they executed the fundamentals better than anyone in the business, and ran with the best of teams.  With both of those attributes evaporating, this is a below .500 club.
4) Seattle Mariners - UNDER 67.5 

It will be a long, painful season for the Mariners.  This is a team that needs to look long and hard at its core, and realize they have missed the window for competing with Felix Hernandez and Ichiro Suzuki on the team.  Both should be used at the trade deadline to stockpile top prospects Seattle can pair with their young pitchers to make a run within the later part of this decade. 

National League East

1) Philadelphia Phillies - UNDER 96.5 

When Cliff Lee signed with the Phillies, everyone immediatley penciled them in for a World Series title this year, the next, and the year after that.  With arguably one of the best rotations in history, it will be tough for teams to beat them in series throughout the year and in the playoffs.  However, the lineup has suffered an enormous hit with the loss of Chase Utley for potentially the entire season.  With an aging Ibanez, Rollins, and Oswalt, and an ailing Lidge, they wont be the runaway juggernaut everyone expects.  Look for Phillies to make a big second half push that puts them into the drivers seat in the N.L.

2) Atlanta Braves - OVER 85.5 

The Braves have a plethora of young arms in their rotation, and the perfect blend of youth and veterans in their lineup and bullpen to compete for a National League crown.  Dan Uggla was a smart addition, and Fredi Gonzalez is an excellent manager who should seamlessly take over for Bobby Cox.

3) New York Mets - OVER 75.5 

The Mets ownership is in dismay and is probably better off selling the team.  However they have quietly assembled a front office that wont put fans in the seats, but will enable this team to make smart trades and acquisitions to set themselves up for a World Series run later in the decade.  They'll play .500 ball this year due to their offense and solid fundamentals, which for Mets fans may be as good as getting to the playoffs.

4) Florida Marlins - UNDER 80.5 

Losing Dan Uggla to division rival Atlanta, and their manager Fredi Gonzalez to the same club, make it a down year for the Marlins.  They have a ton of studs in the rotation, and arguably the best all around player in baseball in Hanley Ramirez anchoring their lineup.  They may surprise, but without Gonzalez managing them, a disaster bullpen, and no legitimate threat behind Hanley, this team doesn't have what it takes to compete on a serious level.

5) Washington Nationals - UNDER 70.5
I still don't understand the Jayson Werth signing.  The money they paid him could have been spent on bringing in 5-6 veterans to blend in with the talented youth.  The Werth move will set this franchise back another 5 years, that's 5 years closer Stephen Strasburg gets to leaving for a big market club.

National League Central

1) Chicago Cubs - OVER 80.5 

There has to be a year before I die when everything aligns for this cursed organization.  This is year one of the process.  The Cubs didn't make any noise during the off season other than trading for a pitcher who is one of the best in the league, Matt Garza.  He never backed down from the Red Sox's or Yankees, and will be a stud for the Cubs.  After the disaster with Jay Cutler and the Bears in the NFC Championship game, this city is ready to rally around the lovable losers.  It wont end in a World Series Championship, but they'll show signs of progressing toward being an annual contender. (This is the team that will blow the bank for Albert Pujols in the off season.  He will get A-Rod money and then some from the Cubs, and if they can sign him they will instantly be World Series contenders.)

2) Milwaukee Brewers - OVER 84.5 

The Brew Crew are the trendy pick to win the N.L. Central, but I am not buying it.  Greinke is a complete head case, and the rest of their pitching is suspect.  Prince Fielder is in a walk year and will put up monster numbers along with Ryan Braun, but the bottom line is the pitching will not be there when needed and the Brewers will miss out on the playoffs.  They know they can't keep Prince so don't be surprised if they move him at the deadline.

3) Cincinnati Reds - UNDER 83.5 

Last season everything broke right for this team.  I can't trust a team managed by Dusty Baker to put together back to back playoff seasons.  They'll be fun to watch with their offense, but the young pitching has regressed and wont keep them in contention this season.

4) St. Louis Cardinals - UNDER 86.5 

I would have picked the Cardinals to win this division had Adam Wainwright not gone down for the year.  This team seems to have a lot of bad vibes around it.  I don't think La Russa will be back after this season, and more importantly I don't think Albert Pujols will be either.  Carpenter, if healthy, will be a piece they can deal at the deadline to acquire players for a run in the future.

5) Pittsburgh Pirates - UNDER 64.5 

The way the Pirates are run is a crime.  They exist solely for big market teams to pry away their young talent, and also as a development team for veterans looking to rehab and catch on with a contender at the trade deadline.  Utter Disgrace.

6) Houston Astro's - UNDER 74.5

The definition of what happens to a small market team when they load up for a big run and miss out.  The days of Clemens and Pettitte pitching them to a World Series berth seem like a distant memory.  It will be a long, long time before this team competes.

National League West

1) San Francisco Giants - OVER 86.5 

Pitching, pitching, and more pitching.  It is what won them the World Series, and what will carry this team as far as they can go.  I have concerns about the lineup and worry about there being a hang over, but when your team has 3 above average pitchers and your in the N.L., you'll win your division easily.

2) Colorado Rockies - OVER 85.5 

With Tulo, Gonzalez, and Jimenez, the Rockies have a young trio that will allow them to compete on an annual basis over the next 5 years.  They can easily overtake the Giants in this division if the pitching behind Jimenez solidifies, though we are probably a year or two away from that happening.

3) San Diego Padres - UNDER 81.5 
Losing Adrian Gonzalez, a fan favorite, and the only threat in the lineup, for what was essentially deemed a pack of balls and some bats, means the Padres are back to being viewed as the Padres.  Their young pitching will carry them for bursts but they'll have a hard time scoring runs.  Could they have kept Gonzalez they may have been on the verge of a nice 5 year run of competing in the N.L. West, now they'll be cellar dwellers.

4) Los Angeles Dodgers - UNDER 82.5 

If one team is worse off financially than the Mets, it is the Dodgers.  This is a team that wont be able to add any pieces for a legitimate run and with Don Mattingly at the helm, they could be in for a long year.  I see Don being a complete bust as a manager, eventually being fired, and becoming a broadcaster.  He is over hyped as a player, and unfortunately the same has happened to him as a baseball mind/manager.

5) Arizona Diamondbacks - UNDER 72.5 

They have a very talented nucleus of position players led by Justin Upton, but the pitching is a long way off.

American League MVP

David Ortiz - Big Papi will benefit enormously from all the attention paid to everyone else in the lineup.  The slugger who put the city on his back before will do it again, and help Boston win the AL East.

National League MVP

Albert Pujols - The best player in baseball puts up a monster season for a team that struggles to contend and conducts a fire sale at the trade deadline.  Pujols contract talks wont slow him down one bit.

American League Cy Young

Jon Lester - Lester is prime for a dominant year.  The lefty ace of the Sox's, aided by a dynamite lineup, will win 20 games easily.

National League Cy Young

Roy Halladay - The best pitcher in baseball dominates the N.L. yet again.  Halladay will be able to pad his numbers against the many inferior teams in the N.L. and approach 20 wins by August.

American League Division Series

Red Sox's over Rangers - Sox's will easily handle Rangers, who's pitching implodes without a legitimate ace.

Yankees over Tigers - Yankees gut out the series win in what will be a tall order facing Verlander twice.

National League Division Series

Phillies over Giants - Phillies extract revenge on the Giants, easily handling them with lights out pitching by Halladay and Lee.

Cubs over Braves - The Cubs magical run continues with an upset of the young and talented Braves.

American League Championship Series

Red Sox's over Yankees - The rivalry is renewed in an epic series, with many of the games painfully exceeding 4 hours.  Red Sox's win because their lineup is able to decimate the Yankees 3rd and 4th starters.

National League Championship Series

Phillies over Cubs - Not ready to abolish the curse yet, the Cubs go down in miserable fashion against the Phillies.

World Series

Red Sox's over Phillies - Usually great pitching beats great hitting, but not this time.  The veteran Sox's lineup is able to work the pitch counts of the Phillies vaunted pitchers and wins the series in 6.

World Series MVP 

Adrian Gonzalez - Not many people got to see this prime talent since he played in San Diego and Padres games are rarely shown in prime time.  By October his shoulder should be fully healed and he will offensively propel the Sox's to their 3rd World Series title in 8 years.