Super Bowl XLV

As a diehard pigskin fan that treats every football Sunday as a religious experience, I find the Super Bowl to be a time to commemorate what was a great season. In the two weeks leading up to the biggest game of the season in the NFL, I find myself saddened knowing that it will be another 6 months before I see these men of the gridiron return to the field (with the pending labor issues possibly longer). With that being said, dust off your team’s jersey, stuff yourself with the finest finger foods and enjoy what should be decreed a national holiday, Super Sunday!

Packers -2.5 over Steelers

You have heard the analysis for the past two weeks, but it really is this simple. Indoors on a fast track the Packers will be all the Steelers can handle and then some. The Steelers defense when spread out cannot compete (see Patriots) on a high level. The Packers will have to run sometimes to keep the Steelers honest but at the end of the day I see them putting up 30 points easily with Rodgers and the quartet of receivers having a stellar day.

One could argue the Steelers defense being more rugged but the Packers blend of tackles led by Raji, powerful linebackers that include the real defensive player of the year Clay Matthews, and strong secondary that has 3 top tier players (Woodson, Shields, Williams) make them overall the better unit. The Packers exotic blitzes will be able to confuse the Steelers patchwork offensive line and control the tempo of the game. If the Packers spread out the Steelers the blitzes they deploy will be rendered useless. The Steeler linebackers make a living rushing the quarterback, not playing pass coverage.

The only way the Steelers can win this game is the same way the Bears almost pulled out an all time playoff stunner, if Rodgers gets whacked by Harrison.  If you recall in the second half of the NFC championship game Rodgers was delivered a helmet to helmet blow by Julius Peppers and disappeared after. Peppers has been quoted as saying he was stunned that Rodgers got up, and NFL people have said if Harrison gets that kind of look Sunday he will deliver a blow that requires Rodgers being helped off the field. Bailed out by Hanie’s inexperience the Packers held on.

Come Sunday if Rodgers is delivered a blow and folds like he did in Chicago the Steelers will win the game, but that is the only way.

Final – Packers 34, Steelers 20

Super Bowl MVP – Aaron Rodgers

Barring one of the defensive players having an all time game (even then it’s rare, ask Justin Tuck) there is no way Rodgers doesn’t get this award.

Super Bowl Goat – Troy Polamalu

If you have watched the playoffs you have seen a shell of the Troy Polamalu we all know and love (as a big of a disgrace as Yao Ming being the starting center for the NBA’s Western Conference All Stars is the fact that Polamalu got the Defensive Player of the Year award). His whiffs on Ray Rice and Casper impersonation against the Jets (with the exception of a hit on the sidelines) makes me think he is banged up worse than we know.

The time off between the AFC Championship and the Super Bowl may be just what the doctor ordered, but I'll have to see it to believe it.

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For the gamblers out there looking to cash in on the big game, here are 5 can’t miss bets.

Christina Aguilera OVER six seconds on the word “brave” during the national anthem

There isn’t a better way to get fired up for the game than the anticipation of the final word of the national anthem.

OVER 44.5 points scored

Two offenses that feature explosive, game breaking wide receivers, this one is easy.

OVER 2.5 FOX mentions Brett Favre during the game

If this bet was up for every Packer game for the rest of my life I would bet the over.

Steelers player WILL do the “belt” celebration during the game

A defense that is arrogant and plays with swagger.  Any type of negative play or a turn over especially will draw the belt. If the Steelers go up big they may bring a belt out onto the field ala Clinton Portis in his Denver days.

John Kuhn OVER 5.5 yards rushing for the game

I expect the Packers to have a few critical short down conversions they need to make and handing the ball off to Kuhn on each of them.

Everyone have great Super Sunday!