Championship Sunday

Thoughts on the NFC and AFC Championship Games.

49ers 28
Falcons 24
It was the same story that played out last week in Atlanta, only this time the Falcons ran into a coach that knew what he was doing.

Falcons - This loss falls squarely on the shoulders of Matt Ryan. In the 2nd half he threw an INT, fumbled a snap, and on 4th down with the game on the line he threw a pass that WR Roddy White had to turn to try and catch. It was a disaster for Ryan, one he will have a hard time living down.

49ers - Was head coach Jim Harbaugh really going to let the 49ers lose back to back NFC Championship games? No, he isn't Rex Ryan. After getting manhandled in the first half, Harbaugh rallied the defense and got them to pitch a shutout in the 2nd half.

This team is a win away from birthing a new dynasty.

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Ravens 28

Patriots 13

Before the start of the season Joe Flacco declared himself the best QB in the NFL, well he is a win away from being the best of the 2012-13 season.

Patriots - Yet another puzzling loss for Tom Brady and Bill Belichick post Spygate, Gisele, Bernard Pollard knee shot, 18-1. One of those was the death knell for this group. The Patriots are eerily similar to the New York Yankees post late 90's early 00's. The mystique and aura is gone. Nobody, especially the Baltimore Ravens, are afraid to play them in their building. Unless they dramatically overhaul the offense you can expect much of the same in the future.

The game was lost at the end of the half. The Patriots had a chance to go up 17-7 and set the fork on the table. Instead Brady, who is afraid to run with conviction slid cleats up and in the confusion cost the Patriots 10 seconds of time. They settled for a FG and a 13-7 lead. They wouldn't score again.

Ravens - It was only fitting that they got over the AFC Championship Game hump by beating the Patriots.

Benard Pollard won this game. He delivered a vicious hit on Patriots RB Stevan Ridley, causing him to fumble. This led to a Ravens TD that would put them up 28-13. Once again, he ruins a Patriots season. Pollard has taken out Brady, Welker, Rob Gronkowski, and now Ridley.

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Harbaugh Bowl - Two brothers coaching against each other in the Super Bowl. Ray Lewis' last game. Kaepernick and Flacco. This game has a ton of story-lines and will be great. If I had to pick, I'm going with the litte brother and the 49ers. He's on the verge of replacing Belichick as the best coach in the NFL.

Divisional Weekend Day 2

Thoughts on the Sunday games.

Falcons 30

Seahawks 28
The Seahawks rallied from a 20-0 halftime deficit to take a 28-27 lead late in the 4th quarter, but in the end it wasn't enough as Matt Ryan drove the Falcons into field goal range, setting up Matt Bryant for the 49 yard game winner.

Seahawks - The Seahawks overcame a ton of bad coaching and adversity to take a 28-27 lead with 30 seconds to go in the game. Marshawn Lynch's fumble in the 1st quarter and Michael Robinson's stoning on 4th down resulted in touchdowns for the Falcons, who dominated the first half. It looked like this one would be a laugher, but Russell Wilson (who deserves the rookie of the year more than anyone) and the Seahawks offense clawed their way back into the game.

The bad coaching reared it's head twice in the fist half. The Seahawks should've kicked a FG instead of going for it on 4th and 1 with Robinson. You have to take the points, especially when you're on the road and playing with a rookie QB. Getting that goose egg off the board is the most important thing. The play to end the half was bizarre. Wilson was sacked and time expired. Had the Seahawks not used their final timeout to preserve the clock after an awful slant pass, they'd have been able to stop the clock and attempt a FG. Had they done all this, it would've been a 6-20 deficit and a 34-28 win.

Pete Carroll had an awful game, but in the end it doesn't take away from what was a great season for the Seahawks. The key for them going forward is getting a 1 or 2 seed so that they can play in front of their home crowd (which is the best in the NFL). They'll be around for a long time if Wilson matures the way we all expect him to.

Falcons - It was storybook to have Matt Ryan connect with Tony Gonzalez on a pass that would lead to Matt Bryant's 49 yard game winning FG. Gonzalez was 0 for his career in the playoffs, and Matt Ryan had more pressure on him than any QB entering the playoffs. The Falcons were lucky to win this game, but that's exactly what you need when the teams are so evenly matched.

The keys to victory were that they turned the Lynch fumble and the bad call on 4th and 1 into 14 points. That's what you would expect from a 1 seed. They also ran the ball extremely well. Michael Turner turned back the clock, carrying the ball 14 times for 92 yards. Jacquizz Rodgers pitched in with 10 carries for 64 yards as well. Being able to run the ball for positive gains on a consistent basis will be huge against the San Francisco 49ers.

They should be worried about how their defense played. The Seahawks moved the ball effortlessly in the 2nd half. If Colin Kaepernick plays the way he did against the Packers, the Falcons will not be in the game. They have to find a way to pressure the QB while not exposing huge running lanes.

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Patriots 41

Texans 28
After scoring 10 straight points to end the first half, the Texans succumbed to Matt Schaub's inability to throw the deep ball and lost 41-28.

Texans - The Texans are fooling themselves thinking that Schaub is a franchise QB. He was unable to complete a pass over 30 yards and the Patriots feasted on this. He lacks the swagger you want from a franchise QB, and his boneheaded interception to Rob Ninkovich that led to a Patriots touchdown was the death knell.

The Texans have to take a long hard look at Schaub. If they want to be taken seriously they'll think about drafting a QB to put some pressure on him ala the 49ers.

Patriots - It was exactly what we expected to see from the Patriots. Once they grabbed the lead they never gave it back. The news coming out of the game will undoubtedly be about Rob Gronkowski re-breaking his forearm, but the Patriots shouldn't be concerned about this.

Aaron Hernandez is the more valuable of the two. His ability to line up all over the field and use finess to beat defenders is more valuable than Gronk's raw power.

This game featured the emergence of Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen. If these two young runners can contribute, the Patriots will have no problem making up for Gronk's absence.

The Patriots and Ravens always play down to the wire, and there's no reason to expect that this will not be the same.

Divisional Weekend Day 1

Joe Flacco has delivered for the Ravens this post-season.

Ravens 38

Broncos 35

This game had everything. Trindon Holliday returning a punt (90 yards) and a kickoff (104 yards) for touchdowns, some of the worst officiating in playoff history (Bill Vinovich and his crew gave the replacement referees a run for their money), and a 47 yard double overtime game winning field goal by rookie kicker Justin Tucker.

Broncos - I can't help but think of Alex Rodriguez when I watch Peyton Manning. They each broke through and won that elusive championship, but every other post-season has been filled with disappointment. When we look back on their careers, I think we'll remember them more for the what ifs than the incredible statistics.

Manning deserves the blame for this loss. His across the body throw at the end of the first overtime resulted in an interception that decided the game. This was the type of play you expect to see from a rookie (or his brother), not from a QB whom people say is the best in NFL history.

John Fox, the Broncos head coach, will shoulder some of the blame as well. His decision to kneel down and go to overtime with 32 seconds on the clock and 2 timeouts will be scrutinized forever if the Broncos and Manning don't get to a Super Bowl.

That being said, when you have an immortal QB (or any QB for that matter), you don't expect him to turn the ball over 3 times in a home playoff game. Take away the special teams touchdowns from Holliday and you get a Ravens route.

Ravens - This was Joe Flacco's "Give me a contract extension" game. His stat line read 18/34, 331 yards, 3 TD's, and 0 turnovers. To put up those kinds of numbers on the road against a team that was favored by 10 points is remarkable. Every time the Ravens needed a big throw Flacco delivered. This is the type of game that if you win a Super Bowl you point to as the springboard.

Everyone felt that a Patriots versus Broncos AFC Championship Game was preordained. The Ravens went out and threw a wrench into that. Many analysts are already calling for Ravens versus Patriots and predicting an easy Patriots win.

If the Ravens are ever going to get to a Super Bowl with this group, it would only be right that they had to go through New England to get there.

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49ers 45

Packers 31

KAE-PER-NICK! KAE-PER-NICK! KAE-PER-NICK!

Packers - 

Aaron Rodgers can only do so much. He has no margin for error, playing with one of the most overrated defenses in the league and a well below average offensive line. The fact that he was sacked 51 times during the regular season and managed to lead the league in passer rating is mind boggling.

Everyone on the defense (with the exception of Clay Matthews) should be expendable. When is the last time BJ Raji made a big play? Or Charles Woodson? The Packers need to let the holdovers from the Super Bowl go and retool for another run.

It bears repeating; Sentimentality is the difference between good teams and great teams. The good teams are sentimental to players whose play has diminished (Raji, Woodson) but were responsible for the team winning in the past, while the great teams (Patriots) have no sentiment and will release or trade a player when he isn't contributing.

49ers - 

The move that head coach John Harbaugh made to go from Alex Smith to Colin Kaepernick was made specifically for the playoffs. Kaepernick adds a dynamic to the 49ers that Smith never could. His ability to throw the deep ball while having the speed of a thoroughbred racehorse makes him a rare talent. To piggyback off of what FOX Sports columnist Jason Whitlock said, he's better than Michael Vick ever was. He's Steve Young with more physical talent.

The 49ers defense was exposed in their win against the Patriots. Teams like the Seahawks and Packers have had no problem moving the ball on them. That means that the NFC Championship will be won or lost by Kaepernick.

Regardless of what happens next week, the move to Kaepernick has payed off. He has given the 49ers hope for an even brighter future, one filled with consistent playoff appearances and a legitimate shot at the Super Bowl.

Wild Card Weekend Day 2

Thoughts on the Sunday games.

Ravens 24

Colts 9

Adam Vinatieri's missed 40 yard field goal with 11:44 left in the 4th was the end for the Colts, who had every chance to win this game.

Colts - Bruce Arians being hospitalized due to the flu may have cost the Colts a win. Andrew Luck took a beating, and to his credit, he kept on fighting. Had Vinatieri made the field goal, the score would've been 12-17, and all the pressure would've been on Joe Flacco (a player who has wilted under it this season).

For this franchise to be in the playoffs in year 1 of the Luck Era is remarkable. Persevering through Chuck Pagano being out the majority of the season while receiving treatment for leukemia was one of the great stories in sports history. This is a franchise that has a bright future.

Ravens - The Ravens are a live team. With this being Ray Lewis' last ride, would anyone be surprised if they made a run to the AFC Championship game? They'll have their hands full with Peyton Manning and the Broncos (who should be a touchdown favorite), but if they play stout defense and run the ball, they'll be in the game.

The key for this team is having Joe Flacco assume the leadership role Ray Lewis is vacating. If Flacco fails to do this, the Ravens will never win a Super Bowl with him as their starting QB.

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Seahawks 24

Redskins 14

Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III delivered. This was the best game of the weekend.

Redskins - A wild game for the Redskins. After opening up a 14-0 lead, they didn't score again. RG3 was clearly playing on one knee, yet Mike Shanahan continued to go with him until he got injured. Shanahan jeopardizing the franchises future for a playoff win in year 1 is asinine. There's no explanation that will calm the Redskins fanbase.

One thing I noticed during the game was the beating that FedExField took. By the 4th quarter the playing conditions were poor, bordering on hazardous (see RG3 injury). Dan Snyder needs to shell out some money and get field turf installed for the start of the 2013-14 season. If he doesn't, RG3's play will suffer.

Seahawks - The Seahawks might be the real deal. There isn't a Falcons fan on the planet that is happy about having to face them. Russell Wilson, after being down 0-14 (on the road), guided the Seahawks to 24 unanswered. The defense has to prove that they can do it against a QB who has two working knees and more than one weapon on offense.

Wild Card Weekend Day 1

Thoughts on the Saturday games.

Texans 19
Bengals 13

This game was meaningless. Could the Bengals go to Denver and beat the Broncos? No. Could the Texans go to New England and beat the Patriots? The answer, again, is no.

Bengals - It was another year of playing with house money for Marvin "Lovie" Lewis and the Bengals. What they've done getting to the playoffs in back to back seasons, coming out of the same division as the Steelers and Ravens, should be celebrated. They're a WR and an OLB/DE short of being a legitimate threat. Year 3 is make or break for Marvin Lewis and this current coaching staff.

Texans - After having blown home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, the Texans needed to give their fans a win, and although it was ugly, they did. Now they'll go up to New England in the Divisional Round and get steamrolled. Schaub is an average QB. His average play is covered up by Arian Foster, who rushed for 140 yards on 32 carries.
In the NFL, teams take their cues from the QB and the coach. This is a team that is mentally unstable in both areas. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are up in Massachusetts salivating at the chance to play this team.

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Packers 24
Vikings 10
The news that came down 90 minutes before kickoff gave the game some life, but it was short lived as the Packers dismantled the Vikings.


Vikings - Another team playing with house money. It'll be interesting to see in the coming weeks how much they knew about Christian Ponder's elbow injury. Declaring him ineligible 90 minutes before kickoff was bizarre. If he sustained the injury in week 17, Joe Webb should have gotten more reps in practice just as a precaution. Webb looked and played like a QB who had been told 90 minutes before kickoff he was getting the start.
All that aside, Leslie Frazier did a great job of getting this team into the playoffs. Now he has to put some legitimate weapons around Ponder and Adrian Peterson to prove to the pundits that this year wasn't a fluke.

Packers - Aaron Rodgers is the LeBron James of the NFL. When he gets into the zone that the great athletes can tap into, he cannot be stopped. The Packers will have no problem going into San Francisco and giving the 49ers everything they can handle.

Super Bowl XLV

As a diehard pigskin fan that treats every football Sunday as a religious experience, I find the Super Bowl to be a time to commemorate what was a great season. In the two weeks leading up to the biggest game of the season in the NFL, I find myself saddened knowing that it will be another 6 months before I see these men of the gridiron return to the field (with the pending labor issues possibly longer). With that being said, dust off your team’s jersey, stuff yourself with the finest finger foods and enjoy what should be decreed a national holiday, Super Sunday!

Packers -2.5 over Steelers

You have heard the analysis for the past two weeks, but it really is this simple. Indoors on a fast track the Packers will be all the Steelers can handle and then some. The Steelers defense when spread out cannot compete (see Patriots) on a high level. The Packers will have to run sometimes to keep the Steelers honest but at the end of the day I see them putting up 30 points easily with Rodgers and the quartet of receivers having a stellar day.

One could argue the Steelers defense being more rugged but the Packers blend of tackles led by Raji, powerful linebackers that include the real defensive player of the year Clay Matthews, and strong secondary that has 3 top tier players (Woodson, Shields, Williams) make them overall the better unit. The Packers exotic blitzes will be able to confuse the Steelers patchwork offensive line and control the tempo of the game. If the Packers spread out the Steelers the blitzes they deploy will be rendered useless. The Steeler linebackers make a living rushing the quarterback, not playing pass coverage.

The only way the Steelers can win this game is the same way the Bears almost pulled out an all time playoff stunner, if Rodgers gets whacked by Harrison.  If you recall in the second half of the NFC championship game Rodgers was delivered a helmet to helmet blow by Julius Peppers and disappeared after. Peppers has been quoted as saying he was stunned that Rodgers got up, and NFL people have said if Harrison gets that kind of look Sunday he will deliver a blow that requires Rodgers being helped off the field. Bailed out by Hanie’s inexperience the Packers held on.

Come Sunday if Rodgers is delivered a blow and folds like he did in Chicago the Steelers will win the game, but that is the only way.

Final – Packers 34, Steelers 20

Super Bowl MVP – Aaron Rodgers

Barring one of the defensive players having an all time game (even then it’s rare, ask Justin Tuck) there is no way Rodgers doesn’t get this award.

Super Bowl Goat – Troy Polamalu

If you have watched the playoffs you have seen a shell of the Troy Polamalu we all know and love (as a big of a disgrace as Yao Ming being the starting center for the NBA’s Western Conference All Stars is the fact that Polamalu got the Defensive Player of the Year award). His whiffs on Ray Rice and Casper impersonation against the Jets (with the exception of a hit on the sidelines) makes me think he is banged up worse than we know.

The time off between the AFC Championship and the Super Bowl may be just what the doctor ordered, but I'll have to see it to believe it.

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For the gamblers out there looking to cash in on the big game, here are 5 can’t miss bets.

Christina Aguilera OVER six seconds on the word “brave” during the national anthem

There isn’t a better way to get fired up for the game than the anticipation of the final word of the national anthem.

OVER 44.5 points scored

Two offenses that feature explosive, game breaking wide receivers, this one is easy.

OVER 2.5 FOX mentions Brett Favre during the game

If this bet was up for every Packer game for the rest of my life I would bet the over.

Steelers player WILL do the “belt” celebration during the game

A defense that is arrogant and plays with swagger.  Any type of negative play or a turn over especially will draw the belt. If the Steelers go up big they may bring a belt out onto the field ala Clinton Portis in his Denver days.

John Kuhn OVER 5.5 yards rushing for the game

I expect the Packers to have a few critical short down conversions they need to make and handing the ball off to Kuhn on each of them.

Everyone have great Super Sunday!